U.S. military investigators examining missile debris in Saudi Arabia — and trying to trace the origin of a suspected Iranian drone strike on an oil facility — could lead to a retaliatory strike against Iran, Middle East analysts tell the Herald.
“If the origin is in Iran, that will be bad news for them,” said Rocky Weitz, a professor at Tufts’ Fletcher School. “The response from the U.S. would be significant.”
Weitz called the attack on the world’s largest crude oil processing plant, taking out 5.7 million barrels per day, or about 5% of the world’s daily production, “the most significant hybrid warfare attack since 9/11” — referring to the unconventional and economic nature of the attack.
Iranian-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen — whom Saudi forces are fighting — claimed responsibility, saying drones were launched in the attack. Saudi Arabia, however, has claimed the attack did not come from Yemen and said initial investigations show Iranian weapons were used.
The U.S has made similar allegations. Iran has denied the charges.
“This is a very dangerous situation,” said Matthew Bunn, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. “This ratchets up the tension and the risk of a larger military conflict in that region very significantly, which could escalate further to a big war in the Middle East.”
The attack was among the most serious escalations in tensions in the Persian Gulf in recent months, following President Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. He also re-imposed sanctions on Iran that sent the country’s economy into freefall.
Trump said Monday it “looks” like Iran was behind the explosive attack on the Saudi oil facilities. But he stressed that military retaliation was not yet on the table in response to the strike against a key U.S. Mideast ally.
Trump said the U.S. could respond “with an attack many, many times larger” but also “I’m not looking at options right now.”
Joseph Wippl, a Boston University international relations professor formerly with the CIA, cited the June incident when the U.S. was ready to retaliate against Iran for using a missile to bring down an unmanned surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump called off the military strike at the last minute, saying he didn’t want to kill 150 people over the drone issue.
Unlike that June drone incident, Weitz noted this attack’s consequence to the global economy.
“This affects the U.S. economy much more than the drone attack did to our Navy,” Weitz said. “This is a big deal. The temperature’s certainly rising over there.”
In recent months, the U.S. has boosted its military presence with an additional aircraft carrier and bombers in the area.
The Saudis have invited the U.N. to help investigate, suggesting there was no rush to retaliate and that the kingdom is looking for an internationally backed response to the attack.
“Iran has been fishing for an overreaction, but don’t give it to them,” said Hussein Ibish, of the Arab Gulf States Institute. “By showing the direct connection to Iran and putting the evidence in front of the international community, you build that international coalition and prevent it from happening ever again.”
Herald wire services contributed to this report.
